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Luis Severino (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Mets vs. Braves pick odds, predictions for Thursday 4/11

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated 4/10/24

Luis Severino has looked like the Severino of old. After being plagued by injuries during his tenure with the Yankees, he's had a good start to the season with the Mets. However, the New York Mets haven't had an ideal start as a team, but a win against the Braves could signal a turning point.

Max Fried goes for the Braves, and unlike Severino, he's looked off. No, he hasn't seen a drastic decrease in velocity, but his strikeout numbers are down.

So, can the Mets capitalize? Let's get to my Mets vs. Braves pick.

Mets vs. Braves Odds

Thursday, April 11, 12:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Mets Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+147	9.5 +100/-121	+1.5 -129

Braves Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-175	9.5 +100/-121	-1.5 +108

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here

New York Mets

Severino possesses a 3.77 ERA through two starts, which is encouraging as he's also kept the walks to a minimum. His ground-ball rate has also been favorable and his strikeout numbers have improved from last season. Much of his success comes from a dominant fastball that hovers around 96 mph and although the Braves fared well against right-handed fastballs last season, Severino looks to be back.

The Mets have done well when facing left-handed pitching this season. In 102 plate appearances, the Mets have a 127 wRC+ and a 14.7% strikeout rate. Now, if Fried looks like himself again, that could change. A season ago, the Mets had five hitters who had a xwOBA over .320 off of southpaws. They may also have one the best hitting tandems behind the plate in Francisco Álvarez and Omar Narváez. Joey Wendle and Harrison Bader were nice veteran adds, and Brett Baty has tons of potential to unlock. Needless to say, this team can get to a struggling Fried.

In relief, the Mets have solid back-end options. Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino and Edwin Díaz are all reliable and able to rack up strikeouts.

Atlanta Braves

Fried is typically one of the best pitchers in the league, and with Spencer Strider hitting the Injured List, Fried is going to be viewed as the ace of Atlanta's staff. However, his first couple of outings have been subpar as he's yet to get through the fifth inning and has already yielded 10 earned runs. He'll likely turn things around, but this is still concerning for a pitcher who is typically on cruise control.

The Braves have a 160 wRC+ and a sub-20% strikeout rate off of righties over 294 plate appearances this season. Sean Murphy hitting the Injured List doesn't help, so catching may be somewhat of an offensive black hole. Jarred Kelenic is mashing the baseball, so that's an addition that seems to be working out. That said, since both teams can hit, backing the pitching that has been more stable seems like the best call.

The Braves’ relief staff takes a bit of a backseat to New York’s. Joe Jiménez and A.J. Minter have been great, but even Raisel Iglesias has been a tad shaky with limited strikeouts. The edge in this area should point heavily toward the Mets.

Mets vs. Braves

Betting Pick & Prediction

Severino and the Mets' bats can match the Braves in this game. New York also has the better bullpen, especially late. As a result, New York holds value on the moneyline and could be taken to +125. Look for Severino to continue his groove and for the New York Mets to manufacture runs.